There is an economic catastrophe building
- Thread starter Bud
- Start date
I figure somewhere out there in finance world, there is a number.
A number that when reached, means we have crossed the line and we ain’t coming back.
It’s a debt number, and in my head that number is 50 Trillion. To me that is the breaking point, the last straw,
the tipping point, as they say.
I used to think I could out smart 50T,and be dead before it arrived. And as 240 likes to say “Fart in its general direction”
Now today, I’m not so sure. We are above 35T now and spending like drunken sailors on shore leave.
At our present rate of consumption, I believe we should cross that bridge of no return sometime in 2026, possibly earlier.
I think investing in things that will help keep you running is key. Food, ammo, fuel, oil& filters, anything that would help one live as close to their normal as possible. Not normal, mind you, but as close as possible.
Maybe a spare set of tires, tools to fix things, along with knowledge to do so. Maybe even a couple of rattle cans to cover up the new. In the beginning, I believe it will be a bit of a free for all. Perhaps mostly in the city. But yes pretty much everywhere. Those displaced will seek targets of opportunity.
Divest yourselves of big stores, build some local resources. Make friends with the folks with signs at the end of their driveways that say Eggs for sale, Bunnies, for sale, and so on. Offer to help them solve a problem if you can.
On Friday, as much by luck as by planning I stumbled upon a farmer, great guy, we hit it off almost immediately.
He asked me what I was trying to sell today. I told him I had given some thought to what he really needed. He sarcastically asked what I thought he could actually need.
So I responded with, “Screw the machines, I’m thinking a crate of AKs and 5,000 rounds of ammo”. He lit up like a Christmas tree. And it just took off from there. He said all he owns is one deer rifle and he can barely shoot it. Now, I have a half of beef inbound, and a place to hunt should I so desire. ($3.65/Pound cut and wrapped for those interested)
In exchange, I offered to teach him to shoot. He said he couldn’t hit a deer if his life depended on it. I asked if it was always that way, he said no, he was quite good when he was younger. Then I asked if his gun was on? He said he had a buddy who was a local police sniper test it and it was spot on.
I came away very pleased with this meeting. Not sure where it will go, but it has great potential.
I think making as many of these local connections as possible is key to our getting over this upcoming hump.
Money is and always was an artificial conveyance of wealth and or property. Nothing more.
it just made purchases simpler. No hauling a bag of gold down to the butcher shop in exchange for meat. No trading a box of .22s for coffee.
As preppers and survivalists, we hope/think we can go it alone. And maybe some of us can. But it’s the exception rather than the rule. Maybe when we were younger, but probably not even then.
I am usually the last one to advocate joining a group. Groups are like a chain, only as strong as its weakest link.
You are not likely to stumble upon Dev Gru out in your travels, perhaps not even a troop of well practiced Boy Scouts.
Some groups are actually a detriment to your survival. Untested, poorly trained, and undersupplied, they will draw down your supplies and not offer much in return.
When I first got on this train, I was approached by a Mutual Assistance Group. They requested I sit in on a meeting and see if I was able to contribute. What a bunch of losers! I remember thinking after about the first ten minutes, “this was a huge mistake” All these guys could talk about was guns and comms.
Don’t get me wrong, I like guns as much as the next guy. But all they were seeking as guidance to get out of that urban cesspool we all call NYC. Once there, they planned on pillaging what they needed. I had to work hard not to choke the leader, and times were good. The meeting ended, we parted ways, and I never looked back.
I guess what I’m trying to say is choosing the right group is as important as choosing any group. Honestly if we lived in a place without ROL, I would have dumped the leader just for kicks, he was that big of a turd.
He kept saying it was a two way street and that we might need him too. .
I explained to him in my so diplomatic way, that even if things got really bad out in the country, none of us would be making the trip to NYC in search of help. And we weren’t about to import a gang on thieving fucking pirates seeking to steal from us. In retrospect I should have left out the thieving part for the sake of getting along.
Man, this ran long!
@Mel, any help here?
Moral of the story, look around with a keen eye and see what you really need. Get some training, in things you may need.
Mechanics, first aid, conflict resolution, and so on.
Do a trial, run. Dump your main breaker for a few days. I know I have said this before, but it is an excellent way to flesh out the weak spots.
Carry on,
LV,
A number that when reached, means we have crossed the line and we ain’t coming back.
It’s a debt number, and in my head that number is 50 Trillion. To me that is the breaking point, the last straw,
the tipping point, as they say.
I used to think I could out smart 50T,and be dead before it arrived. And as 240 likes to say “Fart in its general direction”
Now today, I’m not so sure. We are above 35T now and spending like drunken sailors on shore leave.
At our present rate of consumption, I believe we should cross that bridge of no return sometime in 2026, possibly earlier.
I think investing in things that will help keep you running is key. Food, ammo, fuel, oil& filters, anything that would help one live as close to their normal as possible. Not normal, mind you, but as close as possible.
Maybe a spare set of tires, tools to fix things, along with knowledge to do so. Maybe even a couple of rattle cans to cover up the new. In the beginning, I believe it will be a bit of a free for all. Perhaps mostly in the city. But yes pretty much everywhere. Those displaced will seek targets of opportunity.
Divest yourselves of big stores, build some local resources. Make friends with the folks with signs at the end of their driveways that say Eggs for sale, Bunnies, for sale, and so on. Offer to help them solve a problem if you can.
On Friday, as much by luck as by planning I stumbled upon a farmer, great guy, we hit it off almost immediately.
He asked me what I was trying to sell today. I told him I had given some thought to what he really needed. He sarcastically asked what I thought he could actually need.
So I responded with, “Screw the machines, I’m thinking a crate of AKs and 5,000 rounds of ammo”. He lit up like a Christmas tree. And it just took off from there. He said all he owns is one deer rifle and he can barely shoot it. Now, I have a half of beef inbound, and a place to hunt should I so desire. ($3.65/Pound cut and wrapped for those interested)
In exchange, I offered to teach him to shoot. He said he couldn’t hit a deer if his life depended on it. I asked if it was always that way, he said no, he was quite good when he was younger. Then I asked if his gun was on? He said he had a buddy who was a local police sniper test it and it was spot on.
I came away very pleased with this meeting. Not sure where it will go, but it has great potential.
I think making as many of these local connections as possible is key to our getting over this upcoming hump.
Money is and always was an artificial conveyance of wealth and or property. Nothing more.
it just made purchases simpler. No hauling a bag of gold down to the butcher shop in exchange for meat. No trading a box of .22s for coffee.
As preppers and survivalists, we hope/think we can go it alone. And maybe some of us can. But it’s the exception rather than the rule. Maybe when we were younger, but probably not even then.
I am usually the last one to advocate joining a group. Groups are like a chain, only as strong as its weakest link.
You are not likely to stumble upon Dev Gru out in your travels, perhaps not even a troop of well practiced Boy Scouts.
Some groups are actually a detriment to your survival. Untested, poorly trained, and undersupplied, they will draw down your supplies and not offer much in return.
When I first got on this train, I was approached by a Mutual Assistance Group. They requested I sit in on a meeting and see if I was able to contribute. What a bunch of losers! I remember thinking after about the first ten minutes, “this was a huge mistake” All these guys could talk about was guns and comms.
Don’t get me wrong, I like guns as much as the next guy. But all they were seeking as guidance to get out of that urban cesspool we all call NYC. Once there, they planned on pillaging what they needed. I had to work hard not to choke the leader, and times were good. The meeting ended, we parted ways, and I never looked back.
I guess what I’m trying to say is choosing the right group is as important as choosing any group. Honestly if we lived in a place without ROL, I would have dumped the leader just for kicks, he was that big of a turd.
He kept saying it was a two way street and that we might need him too. .
I explained to him in my so diplomatic way, that even if things got really bad out in the country, none of us would be making the trip to NYC in search of help. And we weren’t about to import a gang on thieving fucking pirates seeking to steal from us. In retrospect I should have left out the thieving part for the sake of getting along.
Man, this ran long!
@Mel, any help here?
Moral of the story, look around with a keen eye and see what you really need. Get some training, in things you may need.
Mechanics, first aid, conflict resolution, and so on.
Do a trial, run. Dump your main breaker for a few days. I know I have said this before, but it is an excellent way to flesh out the weak spots.
Carry on,
LV,
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In my View (and Don't Trust My Stock Choices, Car Choices or Choices in Women (Present Love Excepted) - LOL!) We are, each and Every One, on a Solo Voyage. If things Fall My Way, well then OK!, but Plan on it Not Being so.
70+ Years has repeatedly illustrated to Me that I am Entirely Too Big Fer My Britches. Failure has been My Best (And Majority) Teacher.
Yep, I am pretty well prepared for What I can Think Of, but I'm sure there are more things gonna happen to Me that I never contemplated. Guess I'll Just "Face towards Enemy" and Keep On Keeping On....
70+ Years has repeatedly illustrated to Me that I am Entirely Too Big Fer My Britches. Failure has been My Best (And Majority) Teacher.
Yep, I am pretty well prepared for What I can Think Of, but I'm sure there are more things gonna happen to Me that I never contemplated. Guess I'll Just "Face towards Enemy" and Keep On Keeping On....
I'm not an economics expert, but I think I know the answer to what Bernstein was asked in the video. The question asked was "why are we borrowing money when we can print the money ourselves".
Bernstein couldn't answer that question and I bet 99% of the people can't answer that. I'm not sure if I'm correct, but here's what I think it is. Most people don't know this, and the government tries to hide this, but the Federal Reserve Bank who controls the currency is not owned by the government. It is a privately owned bank that controls our currency. When they print money, it is owned by the owners of the Federal Reserve and not by the government. The government borrows the money and sells bonds to pay this back. This is a double whammy. The dollar gets inflated because there is more of them, and we also get more debt because we paid the Federal Reserve with money we borrowed from the bonds.
Bernstein couldn't answer that question and I bet 99% of the people can't answer that. I'm not sure if I'm correct, but here's what I think it is. Most people don't know this, and the government tries to hide this, but the Federal Reserve Bank who controls the currency is not owned by the government. It is a privately owned bank that controls our currency. When they print money, it is owned by the owners of the Federal Reserve and not by the government. The government borrows the money and sells bonds to pay this back. This is a double whammy. The dollar gets inflated because there is more of them, and we also get more debt because we paid the Federal Reserve with money we borrowed from the bonds.
Case in point, to second LV's post: the "princess" BF.
He talked a good game, sure. WHEN he talked. He said almost nothing verifiable about his origins. I did meet his sister & BIL & nephew. The BS about living in Montana in the wilderness? naaaah. He never showed adequate respect for the wildlife to have actually done that. In fact, he blamed Gobs and his magic mojo for the disappearance of some of his birds. That's where the "Brotherhood of Assassin Weasels" came from. Never mind the hawks, ravens, eagles, fisher cats & coyotes.
He claimed to be an expert in permaculture & homesteading. Sigh. You ain't all that if you don't finish and maintain what you start - AND break equipment along the way because you don't know what the hell you're doing. Then just discard & walkaway from your mess.
He claimed to love working on his cars - of course with someone else's tools that were never put back. And not having clue one that MAYBE the reason he couldn't put gas in his car is because the gas tank was already FULL. Gobs & Hol got a good laugh on that one.
Gobs & I had his number early on. Hol, not so much. School of Hard Knocks teaches lessons you never forget, so while I DID point out that all the patience in the world (or whatever this week's excuse was) wasn't going to change him, I let her have her fantasy & do all the heavy lifting trying to make lemonade outta a lemon. And once he feathered his nest enough (all with her support and encouragement) he walked.
This is the edited for TV version - the list continues of grievances against this lazy-assed arrogant entitled mouth to feed that barely lifted a finger or didn't have any interest in the design/building of the Hut, or any of the other projects Hol took on, much less pitch in on the basic property maintenance around here. She feels pretty stupid for not facing the facts right in front of her face all this time. It's hitting her hard. GOOD. She won't do that again. She's not so broken this time, that she isn't already changing her criteria and methodology of relationships... it'll just take some time before she gets her natural strut back.
The day after all this came out - I can't begin to describe the feeling of absolute relief that came over me. With the "obstacle" out of the way, we can proceed full speed ahead. She's already called in my new contractor (impressive veteran-owned company) to build a couple projects that will make living on her own easier. Solves several problems. He should start Monday, depending on how wet the field is. She's already discovered that she has a lot more room in the house & garage, and hasn't had to do laundry every day or pick up after him 3x a day. She has lots of friends local enough to get out & do things. All will be well now... as LONG AS, she's learned this lesson well.
He talked a good game, sure. WHEN he talked. He said almost nothing verifiable about his origins. I did meet his sister & BIL & nephew. The BS about living in Montana in the wilderness? naaaah. He never showed adequate respect for the wildlife to have actually done that. In fact, he blamed Gobs and his magic mojo for the disappearance of some of his birds. That's where the "Brotherhood of Assassin Weasels" came from. Never mind the hawks, ravens, eagles, fisher cats & coyotes.
He claimed to be an expert in permaculture & homesteading. Sigh. You ain't all that if you don't finish and maintain what you start - AND break equipment along the way because you don't know what the hell you're doing. Then just discard & walkaway from your mess.
He claimed to love working on his cars - of course with someone else's tools that were never put back. And not having clue one that MAYBE the reason he couldn't put gas in his car is because the gas tank was already FULL. Gobs & Hol got a good laugh on that one.
Gobs & I had his number early on. Hol, not so much. School of Hard Knocks teaches lessons you never forget, so while I DID point out that all the patience in the world (or whatever this week's excuse was) wasn't going to change him, I let her have her fantasy & do all the heavy lifting trying to make lemonade outta a lemon. And once he feathered his nest enough (all with her support and encouragement) he walked.
This is the edited for TV version - the list continues of grievances against this lazy-assed arrogant entitled mouth to feed that barely lifted a finger or didn't have any interest in the design/building of the Hut, or any of the other projects Hol took on, much less pitch in on the basic property maintenance around here. She feels pretty stupid for not facing the facts right in front of her face all this time. It's hitting her hard. GOOD. She won't do that again. She's not so broken this time, that she isn't already changing her criteria and methodology of relationships... it'll just take some time before she gets her natural strut back.
The day after all this came out - I can't begin to describe the feeling of absolute relief that came over me. With the "obstacle" out of the way, we can proceed full speed ahead. She's already called in my new contractor (impressive veteran-owned company) to build a couple projects that will make living on her own easier. Solves several problems. He should start Monday, depending on how wet the field is. She's already discovered that she has a lot more room in the house & garage, and hasn't had to do laundry every day or pick up after him 3x a day. She has lots of friends local enough to get out & do things. All will be well now... as LONG AS, she's learned this lesson well.
So confession time.
I have virtually no bushy experience unless you call getting snookered around a fire.
Could I do that stuff shure it ain't rocket science.
Can I shoot? Sure. I ain't Davy Crocket but fairly sure of my limitations.
Can I do first aid and CPR? Sure. If you need a suture or six it ain't gonna be pretty.
Do I do my own auto repair?
No. I used to do it but choose not to anymore.
I can do basic plumbing, electrical, carpentry, computer stuff, cook, clean, hunt, fish, assemble/ disassemble things, cast & reload, fell a tree, cut and split wood, build a fire, dance and sing.
However none of us lives forever and I'm definitely on the downs lope.
If I make it another 10 years I'd be surprised.
What I do now is done basically for others to either help them now or in a future that doesn't include me. I'm not talking about money but tangible assets and skills.
That will be my my legacy for whatever it's worth.
I have virtually no bushy experience unless you call getting snookered around a fire.
Could I do that stuff shure it ain't rocket science.
Can I shoot? Sure. I ain't Davy Crocket but fairly sure of my limitations.
Can I do first aid and CPR? Sure. If you need a suture or six it ain't gonna be pretty.
Do I do my own auto repair?
No. I used to do it but choose not to anymore.
I can do basic plumbing, electrical, carpentry, computer stuff, cook, clean, hunt, fish, assemble/ disassemble things, cast & reload, fell a tree, cut and split wood, build a fire, dance and sing.
However none of us lives forever and I'm definitely on the downs lope.
If I make it another 10 years I'd be surprised.
What I do now is done basically for others to either help them now or in a future that doesn't include me. I'm not talking about money but tangible assets and skills.
That will be my my legacy for whatever it's worth.
We are rapidly approaching a cliff. Not just the US or Western civilization but the world as a whole.
Whether it's climate change or war or financial collapse.
It's all a house of cards and it's tetering. A major correction is in the offing.
With the global interconnection and speed of communication everything would be affected.
From your portfolio to your internet enabled toaster.
Earthquakes, floods, fires, hurricanes, tornados, blizzards, epidemics, nuclear meltdowns, you name it.
There will not be anyone coming to to save you.
Least of all the "We're here from the government to help you"crowd.
YMMV
Have a nice day.🙂
Whether it's climate change or war or financial collapse.
It's all a house of cards and it's tetering. A major correction is in the offing.
With the global interconnection and speed of communication everything would be affected.
From your portfolio to your internet enabled toaster.
Earthquakes, floods, fires, hurricanes, tornados, blizzards, epidemics, nuclear meltdowns, you name it.
There will not be anyone coming to to save you.
Least of all the "We're here from the government to help you"crowd.
YMMV
Have a nice day.🙂
It will be right away for sure. If it's truly collapse, you can probably make some big purchases quick before people realize it's worthless. The other scenario is a big event like a bank run or major hacking outages where you simply can't access your digital currency. So to me, yes, I believe having a store of cash on hand is smart.
Circling back to LV and WW posts above if I may.
What I see is that very few will have the ability to put together a group that's set sufficient in its entirety.
There will always be those that are needy, greedy, weak and worthless dragging like an anchor that can't be hauled out of the water.
Family, friends, shipmates, fox hole buddies. There's always those that for whatever reason cannot or will not produce.
Fact of life but I'm obviously not as productive as I once was. I'll wager most of us aren't either, although we may offset that with acquired skills and knowledge.
(Oh and cunning😁)
What I see is that very few will have the ability to put together a group that's set sufficient in its entirety.
There will always be those that are needy, greedy, weak and worthless dragging like an anchor that can't be hauled out of the water.
Family, friends, shipmates, fox hole buddies. There's always those that for whatever reason cannot or will not produce.
Fact of life but I'm obviously not as productive as I once was. I'll wager most of us aren't either, although we may offset that with acquired skills and knowledge.
(Oh and cunning😁)