This thread per request of @Vader and a few others over the last months.
For those who don't necessarily spend time watching, monitoring, or otherwise studying the sun, the intent of this thread is to get you somewhat up to speed without merely giving out a couple dozen hours of YouTube videos that you should go watch.
I'll try to cover the basics as clearly as I can.
Long thread warning.
------------------------------------------------
To begin:
Solar flares and CMEs are different things, typically occurring from the same solar event.
The flare consists of ejected protons and arrives at the speed of light - about 8 minutes - and causes near-immediate effects such as radio blackouts.
The CME consists of ejected plasma, magnetic particles of various types, and other material and is what actually juices up the earth's atmosphere, directs energy into the ground, and causes damage. That can take anywhere from 14 hours (record-setting speed) to 4 days (very slow). Bigger, more energetic outbursts arrive faster.
Usually, it's between 36-48 hours, but there are quite a few factors at play there, including the fact that CMEs can travel faster if there are two of them. The first "clears the way" through space dust, cosmic rays, plasma, and such. The second then travels that path at a much faster rate.
Solar flares are charted based upon these categories:
A, B, C, M, X.
A is weakest, X is strongest. Nobody cares about anything short of an upper-class M flare. X is significant even at the lowest levels of it's range.
Historically, the common belief in scientific circles is that the sun would have to spit out an X30 or above in order to take out all or part of the earth's grid, something on the level of the Carrington Event of 1859.
(By the way, a Carrington Event-level flare just barely missed earth in 2012.)
However, in recent years we have seen significant earth effects of solar flares at much lower ratings than X20. The earth hasn't taken an X-class flare since
For example, just a few days ago we had an M4.4 that cause massive radio outages in the South Atlantic. That's an effect that should not have occurred.
I refer to this chart on a fairly regular basis:
In the above chart, we see the percentage of field loss that corresponds to the likelihood of magnetic field collapse.
If the magnetic field collapses, you can kiss the grid goodbye.
The best research we have to this point indicates that the magnetic field has lost somewhere between 20-30% of it's potency in the last 150 years. That rate has been proven to be rapidly accelerating, and we are likely to hit 50% loss somewhere between 2030 and 2040.
At the moment, look at the chart and find 30% loss. Then move to the right, and you'll see that an X20 would pretty much finish off our electrical way of life. However, there's also about a 25% chance that an X10 would do the trick.
We really "need" to be hit, dead on, by a CME from something like an M5-M7. It's been years since we took one that size, as we've been going through the 11-year cycle minimum between Solar Cycle 24 and 25 the last few years.
An M5 flare and CME hitting our atmosphere would do wonders for our ability to predict the probably damage done by larger flares, but until we get one, that chart above is very helpful.
Now, here's a caveat - what if we get multiple CMEs stacked on top of each other?
The KP index is what we use to determine the severity of the sun's impacts on earth by monitoring geomagnetic storms.
It looks like this:
K4 is geomagnetic storm territory.
And now we combine the charts:
So, if we get a double dip CME, which is not uncommon, we can see that an ongoing geomagnetic storm from the first CME (or solar wind) would then allow the strength of the second to be weaker but with stronger effects.
If CME 1 gets us to kp8, then CME 2 only has to be a X12 or so to get us to 50% likelihood, or X7 or so for 25% chance.
Another caveat - these effects are not consistent throughout the globe. The Halloween Storms of 2003 and the Canadian blackouts of March 1989 prove that. The above charts are for total field collapse. A CME can have strong effects on the sun-facing side but not lead to a total collapse.
Yet another caveat - sometimes the flare strength does not align with the expected CME strength. It's possible to have an X-class flare that behaves more like an M-class when it hits earth, due to the speed, denseness, material structure, solar wind, and other factors within the CME. It's also possible to have an X1 flare that behaves like an X5 upon arrival at earth, so don't take the classification as 100% accurate when it comes to earth impacts.
---------------------------------------------------
My opinion only beyond this point:
- The field loss is at least 30%. 40% wouldn't surprise me at all, based upon the atmospheric indicators I've observed the last few years. Indicators such as the prevalence of super lightning, the rapidly wandering poles, solar wind affecting the ground and earth's magnetic fields far more than it should, the ease with which non-earth-directed flares still knock out our radio communications, and more.
- If I see an X5, I'm going to ground my vehicles and put everything in an EMP-proof container. I don't think that would necessarily bring the field down, but it WOULD have strong effects somewhere on earth. If that's where I am, it may as well be an X15 because it's going to bring the grid down, and might damage electronics in that same area.
- The field is likely to be down at least 50% by 2030 due to the rapidly accelerating field loss. That's some seriously dangerous territory for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that the poles probably flip at that point.
------------------------------------------------
To sum up the potential danger:
- M class is worth watching just because we're in a vulnerable position and we also need to make some good guesses on what an X-class would do. We haven't had an X-class in a long time.
- Anything in the X-class range is cause for concern. It's definitely going to have some type of effects somewhere on earth.
- If it's X5... you need to think seriously about moving things to EMP-proof containers, and maybe call in sick that day. Somebody's grid, somewhere on earth is getting whacked, but you won't know who until it happens. Might not be down forever, but it might be down for a few days.
- Anything X10-20 is cause for real concern. Ground your vehicles. Put everything in EMP-proof containers. Don't leave the house. Look at the charts above... what level of risk are you willing to take?
- X20... well...
+
-------------------------------------------------
For further study:
Excellent website for solar condition monitoring: https://spaceweathernews.com/
List of big solar storms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms
7 of the largest solar storms on record: https://interestingengineering.com/7-of-the-strongest-solar-storms-in-recorded-history
About the Carrington Event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
More on the Carrington Event: https://www.history.com/news/a-perfect-solar-superstorm-the-1859-carrington-event
A few years old, but a good video on the weakening atmospheric conditions:
Video on what the sun can actually do to us, beyond flaring:
If you download the "Disaster Prediction App" by maker "Space Weather News LLC" to your phone, it will alert you when significant space weather events or earthquakes occur.
For those who don't necessarily spend time watching, monitoring, or otherwise studying the sun, the intent of this thread is to get you somewhat up to speed without merely giving out a couple dozen hours of YouTube videos that you should go watch.
I'll try to cover the basics as clearly as I can.
Long thread warning.
------------------------------------------------
To begin:
Solar flares and CMEs are different things, typically occurring from the same solar event.
The flare consists of ejected protons and arrives at the speed of light - about 8 minutes - and causes near-immediate effects such as radio blackouts.
The CME consists of ejected plasma, magnetic particles of various types, and other material and is what actually juices up the earth's atmosphere, directs energy into the ground, and causes damage. That can take anywhere from 14 hours (record-setting speed) to 4 days (very slow). Bigger, more energetic outbursts arrive faster.
Usually, it's between 36-48 hours, but there are quite a few factors at play there, including the fact that CMEs can travel faster if there are two of them. The first "clears the way" through space dust, cosmic rays, plasma, and such. The second then travels that path at a much faster rate.
Solar flares are charted based upon these categories:
A, B, C, M, X.
A is weakest, X is strongest. Nobody cares about anything short of an upper-class M flare. X is significant even at the lowest levels of it's range.
Historically, the common belief in scientific circles is that the sun would have to spit out an X30 or above in order to take out all or part of the earth's grid, something on the level of the Carrington Event of 1859.
(By the way, a Carrington Event-level flare just barely missed earth in 2012.)
However, in recent years we have seen significant earth effects of solar flares at much lower ratings than X20. The earth hasn't taken an X-class flare since
For example, just a few days ago we had an M4.4 that cause massive radio outages in the South Atlantic. That's an effect that should not have occurred.
I refer to this chart on a fairly regular basis:
In the above chart, we see the percentage of field loss that corresponds to the likelihood of magnetic field collapse.
If the magnetic field collapses, you can kiss the grid goodbye.
The best research we have to this point indicates that the magnetic field has lost somewhere between 20-30% of it's potency in the last 150 years. That rate has been proven to be rapidly accelerating, and we are likely to hit 50% loss somewhere between 2030 and 2040.
At the moment, look at the chart and find 30% loss. Then move to the right, and you'll see that an X20 would pretty much finish off our electrical way of life. However, there's also about a 25% chance that an X10 would do the trick.
We really "need" to be hit, dead on, by a CME from something like an M5-M7. It's been years since we took one that size, as we've been going through the 11-year cycle minimum between Solar Cycle 24 and 25 the last few years.
An M5 flare and CME hitting our atmosphere would do wonders for our ability to predict the probably damage done by larger flares, but until we get one, that chart above is very helpful.
Now, here's a caveat - what if we get multiple CMEs stacked on top of each other?
The KP index is what we use to determine the severity of the sun's impacts on earth by monitoring geomagnetic storms.
It looks like this:
K4 is geomagnetic storm territory.
And now we combine the charts:
So, if we get a double dip CME, which is not uncommon, we can see that an ongoing geomagnetic storm from the first CME (or solar wind) would then allow the strength of the second to be weaker but with stronger effects.
If CME 1 gets us to kp8, then CME 2 only has to be a X12 or so to get us to 50% likelihood, or X7 or so for 25% chance.
Another caveat - these effects are not consistent throughout the globe. The Halloween Storms of 2003 and the Canadian blackouts of March 1989 prove that. The above charts are for total field collapse. A CME can have strong effects on the sun-facing side but not lead to a total collapse.
Yet another caveat - sometimes the flare strength does not align with the expected CME strength. It's possible to have an X-class flare that behaves more like an M-class when it hits earth, due to the speed, denseness, material structure, solar wind, and other factors within the CME. It's also possible to have an X1 flare that behaves like an X5 upon arrival at earth, so don't take the classification as 100% accurate when it comes to earth impacts.
---------------------------------------------------
My opinion only beyond this point:
- The field loss is at least 30%. 40% wouldn't surprise me at all, based upon the atmospheric indicators I've observed the last few years. Indicators such as the prevalence of super lightning, the rapidly wandering poles, solar wind affecting the ground and earth's magnetic fields far more than it should, the ease with which non-earth-directed flares still knock out our radio communications, and more.
- If I see an X5, I'm going to ground my vehicles and put everything in an EMP-proof container. I don't think that would necessarily bring the field down, but it WOULD have strong effects somewhere on earth. If that's where I am, it may as well be an X15 because it's going to bring the grid down, and might damage electronics in that same area.
- The field is likely to be down at least 50% by 2030 due to the rapidly accelerating field loss. That's some seriously dangerous territory for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that the poles probably flip at that point.
------------------------------------------------
To sum up the potential danger:
- M class is worth watching just because we're in a vulnerable position and we also need to make some good guesses on what an X-class would do. We haven't had an X-class in a long time.
- Anything in the X-class range is cause for concern. It's definitely going to have some type of effects somewhere on earth.
- If it's X5... you need to think seriously about moving things to EMP-proof containers, and maybe call in sick that day. Somebody's grid, somewhere on earth is getting whacked, but you won't know who until it happens. Might not be down forever, but it might be down for a few days.
- Anything X10-20 is cause for real concern. Ground your vehicles. Put everything in EMP-proof containers. Don't leave the house. Look at the charts above... what level of risk are you willing to take?
- X20... well...
+
-------------------------------------------------
For further study:
Excellent website for solar condition monitoring: https://spaceweathernews.com/
List of big solar storms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms
7 of the largest solar storms on record: https://interestingengineering.com/7-of-the-strongest-solar-storms-in-recorded-history
About the Carrington Event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
More on the Carrington Event: https://www.history.com/news/a-perfect-solar-superstorm-the-1859-carrington-event
A few years old, but a good video on the weakening atmospheric conditions:
