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sauced07

sauced07

Well-known member
Brass Subscriber
#1
#1
I wanted to start a thread for the economy. I’ve read car sales fell off a cliff this last month and home sales and prices are getting sketchy again. More to the point what are you guys hearing on street level? I put the thread here so we could be a little more free in sharing perhaps personal information.
I manage a warehouse for a company that produces fully cooked bbq ribs. We sell to grocery stores across the country and deal with Canada and a little into South America.
We have come to almost a full stop. We are starting to work 2 1/2 day weeks. I’m stretching it but not even getting 40. Yesterday the owner said no one is committing to 2019 yet. They usually do and that’s how we gauge how much raw product to line up.
Anyone else hearing or seeing anything?
I’m hoping this becomes the type of thread like the solar minimum thread. We need as much of a heads up as we can get on weather and finances.
 
Bacash

Bacash

Just a guy
Brass Subscriber
#3
#3
I work in the steel industry, and we are slamming right now. The major segment of steel that idea with is tied directly to the construction industry, obviously commercial and industrial rather than residential. Material prices are at their highest point in 10+ years. My days are spent interfacing with structural steel fabricators, for the most part, and every single person I speak with is busy. Not only are they busy with work currently in their shop and in their backlog, bidding of new work is also extremely busy. Just my little slice of the pie.
 
WhiteWolf

WhiteWolf

Wolf Mage
Silver Subscriber
#4
#4
sauced, I'll just put out a blanket caution for everyone to not react to the headlines. Been following econ pretty closely for 10 years, because I got thrown into the deep end of the pool. Yes, there are fluctuations in those markets - they always go up & down - it shouldn't be read as a "sky is falling" indicator when something goes down. You have to dig deeper for the reasons why.

Whether long-term, the tariffs and other econ measures Trump is initiating will be good or not... people are having fear reactions and making financial decisions without doing their due diligence - OR because they're seriously overweighted in one investment class or another. The markets are NOT the actual economy, despite media's efforts to push that idea.

I've been sitting tight for 3 years now. It's still "wait & see" time around here. Yes, 10 yr T Bond yields are the highest they've been since the election - AND - this is one thing I keep an eye on because it impacts the fedgov's ability to keep financing their operations. And that would be ALL of them, including the military & entitlements like medicare/social security. What goes up, often comes down... so I'm holding my breath.

Because my portfolio is about as evenly balanced as it can be... I've converted fiat to real estate, equipment, improving buildings and developing the farm. I've got a fair amount of PMetals too. The spot price is coming back and hanging in a range that I consider a "buy" situation. It's another form of "value" "savings account" for me. Always with easily exchangable denominations.

There simply isn't anything else around to hedge your investments anymore. So that leaves: buying the best tools out there, stocking/storing hardware, property infrastructure, freeze-dried long term storage food, seeds, "income generating supplies & equipment" for an alternate economic future... and all the little "odds & ends" like hardware for repairs, sewing notions, reference books, etc.
 
sauced07

sauced07

Well-known member
Brass Subscriber
#5
#5
Sacajawea said:
sauced, I'll just put out a blanket caution for everyone to not react to the headlines. Been following econ pretty closely for 10 years, because I got thrown into the deep end of the pool. Yes, there are fluctuations in those markets - they always go up & down - it shouldn't be read as a "sky is falling" indicator when something goes down. You have to dig deeper for the reasons why.

Whether long-term, the tariffs and other econ measures Trump is initiating will be good or not... people are having fear reactions and making financial decisions without doing their due diligence - OR because they're seriously overweighted in one investment class or another. The markets are NOT the actual economy, despite media's efforts to push that idea.

I've been sitting tight for 3 years now. It's still "wait & see" time around here. Yes, 10 yr T Bond yields are the highest they've been since the election - AND - this is one thing I keep an eye on because it impacts the fedgov's ability to keep financing their operations. And that would be ALL of them, including the military & entitlements like medicare/social security. What goes up, often comes down... so I'm holding my breath.

Because my portfolio is about as evenly balanced as it can be... I've converted fiat to real estate, equipment, improving buildings and developing the farm. I've got a fair amount of PMetals too. The spot price is coming back and hanging in a range that I consider a "buy" situation. It's another form of "value" "savings account" for me. Always with easily exchangable denominations.

There simply isn't anything else around to hedge your investments anymore. So that leaves: buying the best tools out there, stocking/storing hardware, property infrastructure, freeze-dried long term storage food, seeds, "income generating supplies & equipment" for an alternate economic future... and all the little "odds & ends" like hardware for repairs, sewing notions, reference books, etc.
Click to expand...
I couldn’t care less about the markets. I’m talking tangible things. I’m observing, at least as far as food goes, a nervousness among suppliers to commit. Perhaps peoples tastes are changing, I don’t know.
Perhaps to some industries are slowing down while others are picking up.
As far as car sales go hell if I could afford one and I know a lot of people I talk to are not willing to get balls deep in payments.
Food and housing is what caught my attention.
 
WhiteWolf

WhiteWolf

Wolf Mage
Silver Subscriber
#6
#6
Well, as far as that goes - people "talk" in my grocery store. And one of the frequent conversations is about the price of ground beef. I've made some old ladies giggle by asking what they're feeding those cows...

the quality of produce seems to be diminishing too. Whether that's a transportation or storage issue, I couldn't say. The farmer's markets and farm stands out here are usually packed.

And prices for everything except labor seem to be going up - whether that's a decrease in the purchasing power of a dollar (which doesn't seem right as strong as the dollar is at the moment) or something else, I'm not sure. The truck driver shortage is one aspect to ponder.

Another thing I watch - is monetary units. Seems like a $20 only buys what you could get for $10 or even $5 not that long ago.
 
sauced07

sauced07

Well-known member
Brass Subscriber
#7
#7
I stated elsewhere here that my wife noticed some grocery store items doubled in price in a weeks time.
At work we’ve cut all we can as have most suppliers. Prices now have no choice but to rise.
 
partndn

partndn

Seeking serenity
Silver Subscriber
#8
#8
I'm in North Carolina, and homes here are selling the day they go on the market, many times with multiple offers battling it out.
Too many people are moving here. Every piece of available earth is getting molested. Each time I drive away from town, I see another bit of land that's been cleared and a sign for "xxx" home community coming soon.
If cars sales are suffering, I can't tell it by the number of dealerships and the job ads for car sales people.
I haven't noticed much in the way of grocery prices increasing.

I am just over 2 months into a decent job. Thank God! Back to what I used to do years ago.
I sell electronic components for a distributor. The tariffs have been a big effect. But more than that, the industry has shortages, specifically of chip capacitors and some resistors. These are the cheapest of items. But used by the millions in all applications. The increase of "smart" technology in things like automotive, industrial, and commercial equipment have exceeded the supply. So people are paying 30 cents for a penny part for a while. It will take a year or more for the supply to start catching up.

One thing noticeable here is banks. Bank of America, headquarters in Charlotte nearby,.. all their branches in my town have closed the drive thru lanes. If you go inside, it looks like they are running minimal staff.
On the other hand, there have been some smaller bank institutions popping up new branches here. So I don't know what to make of that.
I do know I never liked BofA much, and was their customer for a long time. Many years ago, I needed a debit card for my job traveling, and my small bank didn't offer them yet, so I switched to BofA.
This year, I got into the local credit union and have slowly moved everything there, and glad of it.

I'm not one to panic much about consumables going up in price a bit (like grocery stuff). We're a bit spoiled, and could use some reminders about waste and frugality.
I know diddly about finance and investment projections. But things seem to be going the right direction around here.
 
NoFlyZone

NoFlyZone

Well-known member
Brass Subscriber
#9
#9
Since new housing starts are one of the leading economic indicators and that’s my line of work, I’ll chime in on that aspect of it.
I’m the Plans Examiner/Building Inspector for a County of about 65,000 people.

For the year 2017, we issued 134 building permits for one and two family dwellings and town houses. 44 of them were for apartments in developments. Removing the developments from the equation leaves 90 building permits for residential structures.

As of 10-4-18, we have issued 91 building permits for the same type of structures which puts us on track to issue perhaps 121 permits for the year 2018.
That’s roughly a 25% increase in new housing starts over last year.



Things are looking better this year than last year and last year was a big improvement over the year before!
 
B

Back40

Well-known member
#11
#11
Economy seems to be just fine around here. Home prices are slowing a bit, but they needed to.

But, I'm in Texas... we didn't feel the last recession nearly as badly as most of the country last time around, so I'm aware that my state is the last to go during hard times and is not necessarily a good indicator of how things are overall.

One thing I have noticed - I'm in the ag industry, selling to grocery stores, foodservice, etc.

Many companies are beginning to cut products with imported commodities. Previously they may have been US-produced products only, now they're importing from Canada, South America, etc and cutting their product. This is just a cost-saving and margin issue, but does show a bit of hardship on their part.
 
HandLoad

HandLoad

Twinkle Me, LORD
Brass Subscriber
#12
#12
Sure am impressed with the Knowledge of the "UpThread" members here!

I used to be able to give a pretty good Six Months' heads up, by watching the net inflow/outgo of Container Cargo at the Port where I worked. Since I retired, and gone to ground, I just have to watch other things.

@Sac's analysis of near Economy-Wide chaos feels about right, by what little I see. And Her efforts to increase/shore up things like sewing notions, food stores, local needs, is just what We are doing here at the L'il Shack inna Woods. Those efforts are tangible, and lend themselves to a better mindset as well. If I don't need to worry much about food, Clothing, Household supplies, Communications, and so on, I feel less threatened by other forces I can't do much about.
 
WhiteWolf

WhiteWolf

Wolf Mage
Silver Subscriber
#14
#14
Another indicator from my very rural and ag-centered part of the state... contractors are BUSY, and therefore scarce. The ones who weren't on the up & up, do good work, and stand behind it - were all run out of business during the recession. As a whole, WV is losing population. Suits me fine. But we also had a miniature Tractor Supply store open in the closest "city" last year. Doesn't seem to be hurting the closer hardware store's business - their lot is still always full.
 
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